This article was originally published in the February/March 2025 issue of Vision Magazine North America
Cherries, according to industry insiders, are one of the last remaining truly seasonal items produced in the U.S. Northwest, but recent years have been challenging for growers with problems ranging from weather-related damage to overlaps with California, which impacted the 2022 and 2023 seasons. While the forecast initially appeared pessimistic for 2024, the year turned out to be one of recovery for the industry with improved volumes, and the pattern looks like it could be repeated in 2025.
According to Destiny Nash, assistant director of Cherries at Yakima, WA-based Superfresh Growers, the 2024 season brought a welcome return to a more normal equilibrium between supply and demand after the challenges experienced during 2022 and 2023. During 2022, weather impacted volumes across most growing regions, leading to a very short crop, with demand exceeding supply, she says. Twelve months later, a compressed window led to oversupply for much of the season, which, combined with significant overlap with California, created a depressed market, notes Nash.
Overall, Northwest cherry growers had a positive 2024, with an average size crop of 19.5 million boxes (equivalent to 20 lb each) with excellent sizing, brix and flavor, says Karley Lange, director of domestic promotions at Yakima, WA-based industry association Northwest Cherries.
“While the industry originally thought the crop was much smaller in the 2024 season, everyone was pleasantly surprised,” says Lange. “The prospect for the 2025 season is looking good. Growers are commenting on the number of buds they are seeing for the crop, and it looks like it will be promising. The trees that were damaged from the extreme cold and frost in January 2024 are coming back around and will be producing again this season.”
With a relatively short season that only runs between June and August, targeted promotions are important, and Nash says the healthier market environment allowed Superfresh to collaborate more closely with retailers, setting targeted price points that supported strong sales while ensuring grower profitability.
“Expectations in 2025 are optimistic for another robust crop, including a larger late-season supply—a segment that faced challenges in 2024,” she says. “This will enable more strategic planning to maintain a stable market. That said, Mother Nature remains the ultimate stakeholder in every cherry crop. With a long growing season still ahead, our ability to finalize plans will depend on weather conditions. However, the current bud potential looks very promising for retailers, growers, and, of course, consumers.”
According to Chris Kurylo, vice president for strategic business development and analysis at Vancouver, Canada-headquartered Oppy, the 2024 cherry season was mixed. Despite strong demand, a later start to California decreased volumes to 8 million boxes. “In the Pacific Northwest, we saw excellent prices throughout the season, but were hit by a couple of weather events—a freeze and rain earlier in the season, and a high-temperature, hot weather event in July. So volumes were down by about 20% on average,” he says.
With the flip side that demand and prices remained strong throughout 2024, Kurylo says there is an expectation that 2025 will see a return to historical norms at around 20 million boxes for the Northwest and 10 million for California. “With the return to normal volumes, the expectation is that pricing should remain elevated, so the key thing is going to be promotions and ads to get through a higher volume of the crop.” That said, Kurylo says the hope is always for slightly lower volumes from California to avoid oversaturating the market and a resulting impact on the Northwest season.
Expecting the Unexpected
The weather is the biggest variable when it comes to cherry production, given its short supply window, according to Kurylo. “It’s about six to eight weeks in the Pacific Northwest and any significant weather events during that period have a knock-on impact on volumes in the marketplace,” he says.
In terms of pricing, Kurylo says cherries generally follow the economy, with the significant spike in inflation over the past two years having created what he describes as some challenges to consumers reaching for a premium-priced product. Despite this, Kurylo thinks that pricing expectations have normalized, with consumers appearing to have accepted higher levels for cherries. “I see that trend continuing where there’s an understanding of what the costs of products should be, so velocity should return at these elevated pricing levels,” he says.
One way the industry is evolving, according to Nash, is the influence of technology and continued industry consolidation on forecasting and planning. These factors, she says, are increasingly helping growers and marketers make long-term pricing decisions with retailers. “This approach supports sustainable returns for growers while driving consumption by offering consumers more consistently-priced produce in the grocery department,” says Nash.
Cherries, she notes, hold a coveted position as one of the last truly seasonal items of scale in the produce department, arguing that the future of the commodity is incredibly promising as advancements bring the industry closer to achieving year-round supply and production. “A year-round supply would transform cherries from an impulse purchase into a regular item on shopping lists, driving increased consumption,” says Nash. “This shift would also improve economies of scale, reducing costs for both growers and consumers.” She also anticipates the development of ancillary product lines, leveraging cherries as an ingredient or through innovative packaging differentiation, which could drive incremental sales.
Filling Gaps
But can such year-round production be achieved, and will there come a time when spring and fall gaps might eventually be plugged?
According to Lange at Northwest Cherries, while new varieties often start the season earlier or extend it beyond traditional limits, the factor of the climate continues to restrict further expansion. “Unfortunately, with the climate in the Northwest, we won’t be seeing Northwest Cherries beyond the summer months due to the temperatures required to grow,” she says.
Nash says the primary limiting factor, aside from global trade dynamics influencing overall demand—positively or negatively—is the daily and weekly volume of supply that must be harvested, packed, and shipped. In 2023, she says, this factor proved to be a significant challenge, as an unusually high volume needed to be shipped within a short time frame, putting downward pressure on the market.
That being said, Nash thinks with a healthy and well-distributed cherry crop, the Pacific Northwest has the potential to profitably market more than 25 million cartons of cherries globally.
On the counter-seasonal side, she says the Southern Hemisphere crop, primarily from Chile, has the potential to supply the U.S. market during late winter and early spring, although she concedes that the fall and early winter periods remain a challenge.
However, with technological advancements, Nash sees reasons for optimism. “European retailers can stock cherries for 50 out of 52 weeks each year by sourcing globally and accepting minor cosmetic imperfections like pitting,” she says. “With advancements in global production, storage innovations, and freshness-preserving technologies, U.S. consumers could enjoy similar year-round access to cherries in the future.”
One further point, according to Nash, is that outside of the Northwest cherry season, U.S. consumers may notice differences in freshness and sugar levels, driven by factors such as transit times, fruit maturity, and the effect of defects like pitting on appearance, size, and flavor.
These factors, she says, can lead to differing impressions of imported cherries. “Ultimately, the Northwest crop—renowned as the best in the world—sets the benchmark, and consumer experiences with imported cherries will inevitably be measured against it,” says Nash.
Cherries, says Kurylo, will never be a 365-day item when the short production windows and weather-related volatility are taken into account. “There’s a reason California can’t start before the last week of April—not enough warmer weather days for the crop to start earlier. And similarly, at the back end, you run into rainy weather events, so you’re really forced to end-April to mid-June in California, and then in the Northwest, it’s May to around early August.”
Imports, predominantly from Chile, start around November, running through to the following February, and Kurylo expects to see a significant increase in supply from the country compared with the same period 12 months before.
Claudia Soler, executive director of the Cherry Committee of Frutas de Chile, Chile’s export association, emphasizes the promising opportunities in the market. “Currently, the U.S. is the market with the greatest growth potential after China,” Soler notes. “Generally, Christmas and New Year offer opportunities to promote air-shipped cherries, but January is crucial as it sees the bulk of fruit arrivals. There is also potential for higher exports in the later part of the season, around holidays such as Valentine’s Day.”
Soler says that since 2019-20, except for the 2023-24 season, Chile has shown a positive growth trend, “demonstrating that, as an industry, we have managed to rekindle the interest of both trade partners and consumers in our product.”
She adds, “It’s a market that produces a significant volume of cherries during its summer and consumes a lot during that period. Chile, during its season, has not yet reached 10% of that volume in exports to the market, which indicates significant potential for further growth.”
One of the key challenges to expanding cherry exports to the U.S., Soler explains, is increasing awareness among consumers that fresh cherries are available during the winter. She adds that U.S. consumers seek a high-quality gastronomic experience, and Chilean cherries provide that when domestic cherries are out of season.
As Chile’s cherry industry continues to expand, Soler points out that while growth in planted areas has slowed since the peak period of 2019 to 2021, the industry still expects moderate increases in export volumes over the next few years. Beyond 2027, the pace of growth will depend largely on new plantations established from 2024 onward.
Ultimately, Soler remains optimistic about Chile’s prospects in the U.S. “As long as we continue supplying quality products to the U.S. market and investing in marketing as an industry to stimulate higher consumption, this market should remain the second most important for our industry,” she says.
Manuel Alcaíno, president of Decofrut, a Santiago, Chile-headquartered produce quality control specialist—which also operates facilities in the U.S.—highlights that Southern Hemisphere cherries benefit greatly from having no overlap with Northern Hemisphere production. The existence of this window has enabled Chilean exporters to expand their business in the U.S. despite the fact that—according to Alcaíno–95% of Chile’s cherries are shipped to its principal export market, China.
“2024 was very important because we increased our cherry exports to China from 430,000 tons to around 550,000 tons,” says Alcaíno, adding that an important factor was also the recovery in early season volumes which had suffered a setback in 2023.
“Chile needs to diversify its export markets because concentrating too much on one market is risky, and there are attractive markets for cherries in the U.S. and Europe. This year, there will be a lot more fruit, so it will be a year of consolidation in the American market,” he predicts.
Answers in Technology?
Investing in technology is one way that many in the cherry industry have increased their production capacities during recent years.
In the case of Superfresh Growers, the company debuted a new production line in Zillah, WA in 2022, which has enabled the business to increase its production capacity by 30% by processing incoming bins more efficiently and shipping fresher fruit straight off the line. It also has plans in place to enhance quality control and sorting capabilities by applying technologies that are currently being used for apples.
“We have a plan for every cherry before it is picked off the tree,” says Nash. She highlights that one of Superfresh Growers’ most significant advancements lies in traceability and inventory management, supported by a prophetic analytics system designed to optimize fruit freshness at every stage. “This system ensures the freshest fruit arrives to our retail partners,” says Nash.
With an export campaign to more than 20 countries, Northwest Cherries currently runs promotions in 13 countries in addition to the U.S, featuring circular ads, social media campaigns, blogs, website banners and ads, as well as programs with registered dietitians at the retail level.
Beyond retail, the association produces press and media releases, health newsletters, and campaigns with social media influencers, bloggers, plus “unique promotions” in niche markets. For the 2024 campaign, Northwest Cherries leveraged the summer Olympics and adopted a French theme, “Ooh la la! Mon Cherry!”
“The campaign was extremely successful, and we will continue using the same model and colors, but perhaps change out the language for the next season,” says Lange.
In an effort to increase shelf-life at retail, Kurylo says Oppy has been focusing on clamshell and top-seal packs. Additionally, the company has invested in new cold storage facilities for two allied premium growers in Stockton, CA, and has made similar investments with its partner Orchard View Cherries in The Dalles, OR.
Despite this, Kurylo is cautious as to whether such investments signal further sustained growth for the category. “Having a crystal ball in produce would be fantastic, but I think cherries are always going to be that premium, seasonal product that consumers are looking for in that May-July window,” he says.
“It’s going to continue to be a key driver of profitability for a lot of growers; particularly in the Pacific Northwest, a lot of apple packers rely on cherry profits to fund their entire season. I think there will always be a demand for cherries, particularly in that seasonal window.”
