As a lifelong student of all things agriculture, Daniel A. Sumner is highly respected as an academic and for his tenures in the Reagan and Bush Sr. administrations. Now the Frank H. Buck Jr. Distinguished Professor in the Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics at the University of California, Davis, and director of the University of California Giannini Foundation for Agricultural Economics, Sumner is enthusiastic about educating tomorrow’s leaders in agricultural sustainability.
Professor Sumner’s work has concentrated on the challenges facing farms, agricultural industries and consumers on issues such as projecting supply, demand and price for farm inputs and outputs, food demand related to farm-based product attributes and competition between firms, regions and industries. Sumner’s storied career includes his tenure as a senior economist at President Reagan’s Council of Economic Advisers and his term as the Assistant Secretary for Economics at the USDA under President George H.W. Bush.
A native of California, Sumner grew up on a family farm, and he holds a BS in agricultural management from California State Polytechnic University, San Luis Obispo, an MS in economics from Michigan State as well as a Ph.D in economics from the University of Chicago. Sumner, who is often seen riding his bike on the streets of what he terms “family-friendly” Davis, is married to an agricultural economist, is the father of three grown daughters, and his favorite fruit is a fresh apricot straight off the tree.
Sumner credits his parents as his earliest mentors, with his father inspiring his love for agriculture and his mother demonstrating the value of perseverance and education. During his Ph.D. studies at the University of Chicago, Sumner was mentored by renowned agricultural economists T.W. Schultz and D. Gale Johnson, both of whom profoundly shaped his academic journey. Clearly, Sumner has enjoyed every facet of his career and continues to spread his enthusiasm through teaching, consulting, and research.
Trade policy is a hot topic for agriculture. How do you see current trade relations affecting U.S. produce exports, and what should growers and shippers watch for on the global stage?
Two important policy shifts are likely to be underway. Imports from Mexico and Canada will likely be facing new tariffs. Mexico sends lots of produce to the United States, and the U.S. exports a lot of produce to Canada. The exports are vulnerable for two reasons. The first reason is that U.S. prices will be higher—domestic produce will rise in cost and especially relative to the U.S. products going to Canada. Secondly, the U.S. dollar is likely to get more expensive for Canadians as their dollar drops in value. If you’re an exporter, your business will decline, and more so if Canada retaliates with tariffs of its own.
Throughout your career, you’ve analyzed federal farm programs and commodity policies. What is your assessment of how current policies affect fruit and vegetable growers, and are there any reforms you’d advocate?
I am not a policy advocate—I will leave that to industry and activists. The old farm subsidy programs used to only subsidize the commodity crops such as corn, wheat, and cotton, etc. Now, there are more subsidies for produce growers, such as for the federal crop insurance program. It covers almost the entire cost of buying yield and revenue insurance, but most produce growers still don’t buy it because the insurance programs are not well adapted to produce—there are reasons that make it very complicated.
What advice would you give to students or early-career professionals interested in agricultural economics—especially those aiming to make a positive impact on California’s produce sector?
First, I would advise students to learn how to handle data—get the tough quantitative parts of the learning sooner rather than later. The interaction between computer science and statistics and the economics are going to become more important as time goes by. Don’t short yourself on the tough subjects. You don’t have to become a specialist in math, but when you hire the specialists you want to be able to evaluate their work. To think through these issues affecting the industry is really important. Some farmers are naturals at this, but most people need to get the formal training.
Labor availability remains a pressing challenge in the produce sector. In your view, how can farmers address labor shortages—through technology, policy changes, or other means?
Let’s talk policy first. The natural government policy would be to have flexibility at the border because if there are lots of people who want to work on American farms, more access to that labor would benefit American farmers as well as consumers. Evidently, it’s hard to get it straightened out politically. With respect to technology related to labor issues, it’s important to recognize that farm work is complicated.
We shouldn’t be trying to replace the workers with technology, we should try to augment the hard work that the workers are doing. Having a machine that has fingers and eyes that can see and pick a piece of ripe fruit is very expensive. What would be more useful is to have robots that can help move boxes in the fields and do other such tasks.
Also, innovators recognize that the biology innovations have to go with the mechanics. We now can harvest olives by machine, and as a result, all the olives on the tree must ripen together—a combination of new biology and new machines.
As climate change continues to affect growing conditions, how do you think the California produce sector—and policy-makers—can best respond to ensure sustainable production?
Climate is certainly changing here in California. The biggest changes for produce so far have been the winter-time temperature lows are not quite so low. Now, it’s relatively rare in the Central Valley to get nights that are below-freezing in the winter. The number of chill-hours for deciduous fruit trees is falling which may soon threaten yields. We need to continue to innovate for better-adapted cultivars. Scientists and farmers are working together to find what is best suited for the evolving climate. However, when we notice that climate change is causing us problems—we must also note that it’s also causing problems for competitors. Farmers certainly know the climate is changing, and those who adapt best will do well.
Pest management is also changing. Here too growers and scientists are constantly innovating. For instance, pistachios may gradually move a little further north. People are constantly adjusting; there is a lot of science that goes into these things. California exports lots of pistachios because very few other regions are adapted to pistachios. As the climate changes that might give way to pistachio competitors somewhere else in the world.
Looking beyond California, what are some of the biggest opportunities and threats facing the U.S. fresh produce industry in the coming years?
The produce industry everywhere faces farm labor concerns and is responding with innovations. To keep produce affordable for normal customers, it must be harvested and handled in a cost-effective way in competition with regions with lower wages. At the same time, some consumers are willing to pay extra for freshness, taste, and other special attributes. That means produce growers and marketers recognize that there are opportunities for a variety of local growers that may address the demands of different buyers.
Are you seeing more women entering the produce industry today, if so, why do you think that is?
I think we are all seeing more professional women in any business I know. As an economist, I see things as supply and demand. Even the old timers now say many of the most talented people they know are women. Produce is a good business for women, and I think they recognize how the industry has evolved. Women (and men) see the opportunities in the industry and recognize that the jobs can be demanding, but they are up for the challenge.
How did growing up on a fruit farm inform your career choice, and what was the greatest lesson you learned during your formative years?
The most important lesson that I learned about produce farming and marketing is that it’s a very tough business, and a hard way to make a living. My youth and life experiences have left me with an enormous respect for the people in the produce industry, and I haven’t changed my mind. In fact, that respect has been reinforced time and time again.
Could you tell us a bit about your background and what led you to a career focused on agricultural and resource economics?
I was always interested in agriculture, and I grew up on a fruit farm that later turned to cultivating wine grapes. Aside from running a little farm with peach and apricot orchards, my father was also the agricultural teacher at the local high school. He had my older brothers among his students.
I was very active in 4-H as well as FFA—Future Farmers of America in those years. I won local prizes in soil and livestock judging and for my farm record keeping, you know—the keeping track of the farm economics. I pursued practical studies in agricultural management at Cal Poly (SLO) as well as extra math and economics classes that were intellectually stimulating.
You have experience in numerous aspects of agriculture, what has been the highlight of your career to date?
I have been very lucky that I find the economics of agriculture extremely interesting, and incredibly important. I would describe the jobs that I have had as sort of like being a detective digging deep into the facts and relationships and trying to understand what is happening. Also I truly respect the people I have met in the industry throughout my career, and I enjoy produce people. They are real people, and I am always learning something.
