The U.S. table grape market has been experiencing increasing import volumes, a growing prevalence of newer varieties, persistent challenges such as escalating production costs across all growing regions, and what many in the industry describe as changing consumer demands. The long-term rise in imported grapes—many featuring the same newer varieties cultivated domestically—has intensified competition for everyone, with many industry players saying they are reassessing their strategies. Meanwhile, retailers are placing greater emphasis on attributes like shelf life, size, and flavor.
The volume of fresh table grape imports into the U.S. has been on a clear and significant upward trend. From 2019 to 2023, they rose by 25% to around 817,000 tons, according to USDA data, outpacing total fresh fruit imports, which grew by 9% over the same period. Key exporters—such as Peru, Chile, and Mexico—are expanding their influence in the U.S. market. These imports have diversified the supply chain and softened the price peaks that were traditionally more pronounced during the shoulder seasons.
Peru has substantially increased its presence in the market, with exports to the U.S. having risen more than any other origin over the last decade. Peru’s rise is driven not only by expanded acreage but also by its focus on proprietary grape varieties. Meanwhile, Chile, which usually sends around half of its exports to the U.S., has also been undergoing grape varietal reconversion and will likely see shipments to the market boosted by the recently approved systems approach protocol that removes the methyl bromide fumigation requirement for a large number of exporters. Mexico has also greatly increased its exports to the United States, leveraging its proximity and logistical advantages to supply fresh grapes—a large and rising proportion of which are also new varieties—between the South American and Californian seasons.
This growing influence of imports reflects the strength of these regions as off-season suppliers to the U.S. market. “Peru, Chile, and Mexico will continue being the main source areas for the U.S. market during the off-season,” says David J. Espinoza, export manager and special projects director at Delano, CA-based Hronis, though he adds that all sourcing regions face ongoing challenges. “All areas also will continue coping with weather and climate issues such as rain, drought, as well as social movements, labor shortages, higher costs on production, and logistics issues due to geopolitical reasons.”
Marcial Hernandez, vice president of supply for Fresno, CA-based Pacific Trellis, says that the typical American consumer does not acknowledge the origin of the grapes. “They’re looking for high-quality, flavorful grapes,” he says. This increasing consumer demand for high quality has put pressure on all grape producers to maintain high standards, as poor quality from any source can impact the entire category’s reputation. John Pandol, special projects director of Delano, CA-based Pandol Bros, emphasizes this need for consistency across the entire supply chain.
Carlos Bon, senior vice president of sales for Nogales, AZ-based Divine Flavor, echoes the emphasis on quality. He notes that consumer demand for good-quality grapes is at an all-time high. “Good grapes sell,” says Bon, pointing out that consumers across all retail levels, including discounters and budget-conscious shoppers, are willing to pay for quality. “We’re increasingly seeing premium grapes not just in high-end stores but even in discount retailers, as consumers, regardless of income, are willing to spend on good grapes.”
However, this diversification of supply sources, while beneficial for increased availability, also brings concerns about potential market oversaturation. “If we flood the U.S. market with more than four million boxes for two straight weeks, we start to build up inventory, which is damaging to the price,” notes Hernandez. Bon says that finding a balance is crucial: an oversupplied market could lead to price drops and instability, hurting growers’ profitability. As table grape imports continue to rise, striking this balance will be essential for both importers and domestic growers aiming to secure a sustainable foothold in the U.S. market.
Balancing Quality, Volume, and Consumer Demand
The industry is seeing a steady rise in consumption, which many say is driven by increased volumes of new varieties. At the same time, however, saturating the market with excess supply can drive prices down, hurting profitability for the industry across the board.
“The volumes that we are seeing from multiple countries of origin are significant, and there are challenges that we face,” noted Tim Dayka, CEO of Reedley, CA-based Dayka & Hackett, at the Global Grape Summit held in Chile in August 2024. He also emphasized the need for adaptation: “To continue to do things the same way is probably a mistake, and there are many opportunities to expand our presence in the marketplace.”
Espinoza of Hronis predicts that “new sourcing areas will emerge as suppliers for the U.S. market,” which will benefit consumers by providing “more product availability and a better varietal selection.” This increased supply diversity could allow consumers to enjoy greater access to premium and specialty grapes throughout the year, fueling demand further.
Future advancements in grape genetics offer a promising avenue for balancing volume and quality. New varieties, such as those promising greater shelf life and disease resistance, are under development and could help meet consumer demand while minimizing waste and production risks. Many say that a focus on taste and visual appeal remains essential, but the industry is increasingly looking at long-term sustainability.
“I’m certainly hoping that the next evolution from genetics includes improvements in shelf life and greater resistance,” said Matthew DeCarlo of Bakersfield, CA-based Grapeman Farms, at the Global Grape Summit. “If we don’t see some increases in pricing to growers, I think there will certainly be some victims in the future.”
While advancements in grape genetics hold potential, industry leaders stress the importance of refining selection to meet consumer expectations. “We must determine which varieties meet the consumer’s expectations, and the ones that don’t should not be considered,” says Dayka.
For Hernandez of Pacific Trellis, varietal success also hinges on consistency and shelf life. “What measures a buyer’s success in a store is trade percentage, how much fruit they will lose due to shelf life, which is why Autumn Crisp has been very successful,” he explains. “How do we solve that? By equating the varieties in terms of a consistent eating experience, to make sure people are eating more grapes at a faster pace.”
Strategic planning, Hernandez notes, is essential for capitalizing on promotions. “When we anticipate what will happen in two months, we can tell retailers when they have to leave more space in their aisles for grapes while offering them stable prices throughout the season with high-quality fruit.”
Looking ahead, many industry experts advocate for collaborative efforts to drive consumer demand. Bon of Divine Flavor notes that a proposed Table Grape Board, modeled after similar initiatives in other agricultural sectors such as the Hass Avocado Board—that promote the whole category regardless of origin—could be instrumental in boosting demand further by educating consumers about the health benefits.
Pandol says that table grape consumption is concentrated in the high-income segments of the population. These upper percentiles consume fruit and vegetables year round, but penetrating the lower income segment of the population offers a huge potential to increase sales.
The Domestic Perspective
Ian LeMay, the incoming president and CEO of the Fresno, CA-based California Table Grape Commission (CTGC), describes the industry as “strong, resilient, and future-focused,” yet acknowledges the challenges growers face. Production costs in California remain high, driven by expenses tied to water, labor, insurance, and packing materials. As LeMay points out, “It is no secret that California growers operate in a high-cost state with a stringent regulatory environment.” In spite of that, LeMay says, “As they have done for decades, California table grape growers continue to deliver beautiful, high quality, safe fruit through a long season, reinforcing their inter-generational dependability with consumers and retail partners.”
Speaking to recent weather-related challenges, LeMay notes that in August 2023, Tropical Storm Hilary brought unexpected damage, leading to the smallest volume crop since the mid-1990s. “The industry met the challenge the storm presented and delivered quality fruit through the end of the season and geared right back up for 2024,” says LeMay. The initial estimate for the 2024 crop of 94.4 million 19-pound boxes was in line with the normal three-year average but was reduced to 88.6 million following high summer heat. LeMay notes that as of mid-November with harvest ongoing, the industry expects to harvest a crop of over 90 million boxes and to continue shipping through December.
Focusing on the future, LeMay says that “integration of ag-tech, sustainable pest management practices, irrigation technologies, and labor efficiencies are all areas that the California table grape industry is leaning into to keep the industry moving forward.”
Working together to promote the California crop is part of that future focus, according to LeMay. “It is worth noting that California growers are the only ones with a dedicated funding source and with an organizational infrastructure that focuses on issue management and demand creation. LeMay notes, “Branding and promotion are extremely important for the California grape industry,” adding, “Educating consumers about the seasonality of grapes—that they do in fact have a choice between Grapes from California and other origins—is a first step in boosting consumer awareness and preference. Once a difference is distinguished, then showing consumers what that choice means is important. However, while awareness of, and preference for, Grapes from California is long-standing among consumers, retail decisions about which origin of grapes to offer consumers are often driven by lower prices.”
Looking ahead, the CTGC sees opportunities for the California table grape industry to grow, both domestically and internationally. The 2024 global marketing campaign is targeting 21 international markets, up from 16 the previous year. “There are potential growth areas for California table grapes in the U.S. and in export markets around the world,” notes LeMay. “The growth areas are with consumers and with various sectors of the marketplace.”
A Market in Flux with Opportunities for Adaptation
Amid rising supply levels and production costs, the pressure on all origins who sell in the U.S. market is increasing. With continuous innovations in genetics, a focus on consistently high quality, and an eye on keeping supply in line with demand, the industry would be well-equipped to adapt and thrive. Achieving a balance between volume and quality will be essential, but if industry members stay nimble and consumer-focused, the table grape market looks primed to flourish, driving sales and offering consumers more choice and consistent quality throughout the year.
