As we close out 2025, I find myself doing what most of us do this time of year — taking stock.
Where have we been? Where are we headed? And if I’m being honest, this year tested our industry in ways many of us hadn’t seen coming.
But here’s the thing: I’m optimistic about 2026, and I don’t say that lightly.
A Look Backward: 2025’s Defining Challenges
If you had to pick one word to describe 2025, “uncertainty” would be a pretty good choice.
Here’s a telling data point: Google Trends shows that worldwide searches for “tariff” spiked 100 times higher in 2025 compared to the previous five years.
Think about that: everyone — and I mean everyone — was trying to figure out what tariffs meant for their business. Sourcing strategies, pricing models, competitive positioning — everything was suddenly up in the air.
And the impact was real. When I look at industry performance across the board, the vast majority of produce companies had a down year versus 2024.
Some significantly so. It wasn’t just one thing; it was everything at once. Tariff uncertainty, cost inflation, margin compression. Even well-run operations felt the squeeze.
Then there’s fraud. We saw losses climb into the tens of millions in 2025, and the trend is accelerating.
When everyone’s under financial pressure, bad actors see opportunity. They exploited gaps in verification systems and in trust networks. The money lost is painful, and in some cases, downright catastrophic to companies that can’t afford to lose a load.
And as I write this, the key crossings between Mexico and the United States still haven’t bounced back to last year’s levels.
What ties all this together?
These challenges exposed where we’ve been vulnerable: companies running too lean, making decisions by gut feel, relying on loose verification.
A Look Forward: What’s Old Will Be New Again
So here’s my call for 2026: it’s going to be a great year. Not because the challenges disappear, but because we’re ready for them now.
The companies that got stretched in 2025 didn’t break — they got stronger. I’m seeing a real shift in how people think about their supply chains.
It’s not just about finding the cheapest price anymore. Instead, a pivotal question has changed from “Who’s cheapest today?” to “Who can I actually count on?”
We’re seeing this at Blue Book.
We recently built a Supplier Scorecard for retail buyers. It helps buyers make decisions based on the whole picture: performance, quality, capability; not just who bid the lowest.
And this shift tells me something important about where our industry is headed.
Last year forced everyone to get better: tighter processes, better verification, stronger risk management. The companies walking into 2026 have battle scars, sure, but they also have some hard-won wisdom. And here’s what gets me excited: a new year means new possibilities, such as new products to launch, new relationships to build, new opportunities to chase.
The agility that companies developed just surviving in 2025 will be their competitive advantage in 2026.
Standing on the Shoulders of Giants
Next year, Blue Book turns 125 years old. When I think about this — 125 years — it gives me perspective.
Our industry has been through world wars, the Great Depression, recessions, pandemics, droughts, floods, hurricanes, and much more. Every generation faces its share of “unprecedented” challenges, and every time, the produce industry figures it out. We adapt, we persist, we grow.
Blue Book started in 1901, solving a pretty basic problem for those who dealt in perishable fruits and vegetables: “Who can I trust?”
Fast-forward 125 years, and we’re still solving trust problems, just with more and better tools.
Credit verification evolved into identity verification, supplier scorecards, and pricing intelligence.
But the mission? That’s never changed. To bring predictability, transparency, and efficiency to the produce supply chain and to serve as a catalyst for profitable growth.
When you have this kind of perspective, a tough year like 2025 looks different. It’s a chapter, not the ending, and the lesson is clear: the companies and tools that help reduce risk and build trust? They will always find their place.
The Lessons Learned
So, what did 2025 teach us?
Resilience beats optimization. Verification and transparency aren’t optional anymore, they’re fundamental. The cheapest option usually comes with hidden costs that destroy more value than the savings, and that strong partnerships outperform transactional relationships every single time, but especially when things get difficult.
I can’t tell you what curveballs 2026 will throw; but I can tell you we’re walking into it better prepared. Stronger operators, better tools, clearer priorities.
The lessons from 2025 aren’t going to waste. There’s something fitting about writing this during the holiday season. Because if there’s ever a time for optimism grounded in real experience, it’s now. This industry has 125 years of proof that it knows how to adapt and thrive.
No, 2026 won’t be easy, but we’re ready for it. After all, a rising tide lifts all boats.
