This article was originally published in the February/March issue of Vision Magazine North America.
As someone who has lived on the U.S.-Mexico border for decades and worked closely both with politicians as well as with international trade institutions, I have witnessed how politics and policies can profoundly affect the flow of goods between nations. The border is not just a line on a map; it is a lifeline for millions of consumers, businesses, and workers on both sides. With new administrations in the U.S. and Mexico and the first-ever scheduled review of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) in 2026, the produce industry must prepare for a pivotal era in cross-border trade.
The stakes are high for the produce industry, where time is not just money—it’s the difference between delivering fresh fruits and vegetables or a spoiled shipment. South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley, including crossing points like McAllen, Pharr, and Laredo/Nuevo Laredo, handle a huge volume of fresh produce that fills supermarket shelves across the U.S. This region is a critical artery for avocados, tomatoes, berries, and more, which Americans demand year-round. It’s an intricate system that relies on political stability and functional cross-border collaboration.
What Could Change?
The re-election of Donald Trump in the U.S. and the arrival of Claudia Sheinbaum as Mexico’s new president bring distinct approaches to governance that will shape this relationship. On the U.S. side, Trump’s focus on stricter border controls and his push for higher tariffs on Mexican imports—or if Mexico fails to meet U.S. expectations on immigration or security—could disrupt trade flows. Proposals like a 25% tariff or stricter inspection protocols would create delays at border crossings, raising costs for the industry and consumers.
Meanwhile, Sheinbaum’s government must balance Mexico’s economic dependence on the U.S. with her commitment to continue infrastructure and security efforts at key trade points like Nuevo Laredo. While she has expressed support for nearshoring—a trend that could bring more investment to Mexico—she will also need to address increasing concerns from the U.S. about product origins, especially regarding the triangulation of Chinese goods through Mexico.
For exporters, this means uncertainty. Will stricter border controls extend wait times for produce, increasing spoilage? Could additional tariffs make Mexican fruits and vegetables prohibitively expensive for U.S. retailers? These are real possibilities, but they don’t have to be a cause for alarm—just preparation.
A Consumer-Driven Market
One thing is clear: Americans will continue to demand high-quality, affordable produce. Grocery stores across the U.S. rely on the Rio Grande crossings to supply fresh, affordable fruits and vegetables, particularly during winter. Any disruption in this supply chain would likely drive prices higher, straining household budgets and pushing consumers toward less healthy, processed alternatives.
The North American produce trade has proven resilient, even in the face of pandemics, labor shortages, and weather disruptions. However, as we approach 2026, when the USMCA is scheduled to be reviewed, the industry must be ready to adapt to potential changes in rules of origin or verification requirements. This could increase costs for exporters, especially small and medium-sized producers, who may need more resources to navigate new compliance standards.
Optimism With Preparation
Despite these challenges, I remain optimistic. The interdependence between the U.S. and Mexico is too strong, and the demand for produce is so high and too constant even to think that trade will grind to a halt. Both countries have too much to lose. However, as someone deeply connected to this binational border region, I also believe in the importance of preparation.
Producers, exporters, and buyers must pay closer attention to political developments on both sides of the border. This is not the time for complacency. Businesses should have contingency plans—plan B and even plan C—ready to go.
Diversifying export markets, investing in cold chain infrastructure to reduce spoilage risk, and adopting technologies such as blockchain to improve traceability and meet verification requirements under the USMCA are no longer optional but necessary.
Expect the Unexpected
Trade across the U.S.-Mexico border has weathered many storms and will continue to thrive. But one lesson I’ve learned from living and working on both sides of the border is to always expect the unexpected. Following this state of mind, the produce industry should be uniquely positioned to adapt and innovate, with the right strategies, so it can emerge more robust and more competitive from this period.
While we should remain optimistic, a healthy dose of caution and preparation will ensure that the fruits of our labor and of our land continue reaching North American consumers’ tables.
- Federico Schaffler has a PhD in public policy and currently is the foreign trade administrator for FTZ94 in Laredo, Texas. These comments and opinions are personal and do not represent or imply the official position of the City of Laredo.
