World demand and trade over the past few years have been hit hard by a series of interrelated factors. This has required major fruit producers to rethink where they see their key export markets in the future. Much of this has been driven by the ongoing aftereffects of the COVID-19 pandemic, disruptions in physical supply chains, the impact of climate change, and changes in consumer behavior.
These factors have combined to affect the wider economic situation globally. The relationship of this to world demand is clear: more economic growth means consumers feel wealthier, and the wealthier consumers feel, the more they are likely to buy imported fruit—and, of course, vice versa.
Understanding World Economic Prospects
As a result, understanding the latest macroeconomic trends is crucial for major fruit producers and exporters. So, what is the current and future outlook? The world economic growth forecast from leading sources like the World Bank remains unchanged from previous assessments, at 3% for 2024 and 2.9% for 2025. This, to our mind, is essentially positive.
What the global fruit sector needs now is a period of economic stability after a highly volatile and turbulent time. We have been living and working in what is often described as VUCA times—volatile, uncertain, complex, and ambiguous.
No Uniform Picture
The picture around the world is, however, far from uniform. For example, the U.S. economic growth forecast for 2024 has recently been revised up slightly to 2.5%. But for 2025, the U.S. growth forecast remains unchanged at 1.9% (prior to the election). Japan’s economic growth forecast for 2024 has been revised down slightly to 0.1%, while the 2025 forecast is just 0.9%.
For the Eurozone, growth forecasts for 2024 and 2025 remain unchanged at 0.8% and 1.2%, respectively. China’s economic growth forecasts are at 4.9% for 2024 and 4.6% for 2025. India’s economic growth forecasts are 6.8% for 2024 and 6.3% for 2025. Brazil’s growth forecast has been revised up to 2.5% for 2024 but remains at 1.9% for 2025. Russia’s economic growth projections are at 3.2% for 2024 and 1.5% for 2025.
Reviewing macroeconomic data regularly can give some clues as to where the “best” global market opportunities might be in the future.
What Happened to the BRICs?
Not too long ago, much of the conversation in the fruit industry revolved around the so-called BRIC markets—Brazil, Russia, India, and China. But maybe not as much anymore? While China’s economy is still growing, this is far from the heady pre-COVID days when growth reached 8% per annum. India seems to be the one economy that has continued to grow as expected. In contrast, Russia has seen ongoing decline in recent years, with no end in sight as long as the war in Ukraine continues. Brazil has often underperformed compared to past expectations and has also experienced a volatile political landscape.
What About the N-11?
While the BRIC countries remain important, it may be the Next 11 (N-11) countries—including Bangladesh, Egypt, Indonesia, Iran, Mexico, Nigeria, Pakistan, the Philippines, Turkey, South Korea, and Vietnam—that could potentially become some of the world’s largest markets in the future. Although each has unique characteristics, they share certain common traits and, like the BRICs, have been affected by recent VUCA times. The N-11 can generally be characterized by:
Large and growing populations: The N-11 countries already have significant populations that are expected to grow and could constitute a large portion of the world’s population by 2050.
Domestic demand: Domestic demand drives GDP in the N-11 countries, creating opportunities for both local and international businesses.
Economic stability: These countries have improved economic stability, increased investment flows, and relatively stable political conditions.
Trade openness: The N-11 countries have become increasingly open to trade.
So, what does this mean for the world’s leading fruit producers? It almost certainly means that BRIC countries should not be seen as the only focal points of international marketing, as perhaps they were in the past. A range of other countries now needs to be examined for their long-term potential, realistic market size, and addressable market share. Understanding the current and future competition in these markets is also crucial. Identifying the top four or five markets with the best growth potential—and understanding why these might stand out over others—should be a priority.
All these emerging markets can appear “attractive” for one reason or another, but they cannot all be “the most attractive.” Additionally, it’s essential to assess where more traditional export markets, such as the U.S., Japan, and Europe, fit within this landscape.
Getting the Balance Right is Key
Balancing the needs of mature and emerging markets is a huge challenge. It requires different approaches and skill sets for each. Leading producers and exporters from countries like the U.S., China, Turkey, Brazil, India, Chile, Peru, South Africa, the Netherlands, Spain, and Thailand all have excellent fruit to trade. The “best of the best” in these countries already operate to high technical standards.
Besides offering top-quality fruit, success now also requires a deep understanding of markets and the development of a clear yet flexible strategy. This must account for economic factors, customer preferences, supply chains, and considerations such as climate change and environmental impact. The countries and businesses with robust data and market insight (in addition to great fruit) are likely to be the winners in the mid- to long-term.
Being exceptionally well-informed is crucial to assess the real level of risk and reward in key markets going forward—even for some of the most experienced fresh produce exporters around the world.
- John Giles is a divisional director at Promar International, the value chain consulting arm of Genus plc. He has worked on fresh produce assignments in some 60 countries around the world.
