Avocado sales in U.S. supermarkets have continued to climb in dollar terms, yet unit volumes have been slipping. For a fruit long seen as unstoppable, this divergence raises questions. The surface story is one of higher prices, but behind the numbers the picture is more complex. Untangling the mystery requires following the trail through supply constraints, shifting retail dynamics, and a growing appetite in foodservice.
Dollar sales for avocados have increased three out of the past four years and 2025 sales are 24% above 2021 levels, according to NielsenIQ data. Those figures suggest robust underlying demand.
But, of course, nothing is quite that simple. Changes in pricing for avocados have masked a change in unit sales that paints a different picture.
Unit volume decreased significantly (16%) in 2022 with a reduction in supply from Mexico. We would generally expect a bounce-back in volume in the subsequent year when supply returned — and we got one, albeit somewhat modest. Volume rebounded 10.9% in 2023, so some, but not all, of that volume came back. What is interesting is that the volume has not held, but instead has slipped slightly in the two succeeding years. 2024 saw a 2.1% decrease in volume and 2025 another 1% decrease.
I can imagine industry veterans saying, “Well, of course demand has tapered because the price has gone up so much in recent years.” The problem is that the first and easiest solution is rarely the correct answer. The average selling price for avocados has indeed increased over the past few years.
There was a surge in pricing with reduced availability in 2022. That increased pricing is what allowed the industry to post a 12.5% increase in sales on a 16% decrease in volume. That outcome highlights the unusual dynamics of the market. In 2023, with better availability, the price of avocados returned to Earth but saw steady gains in 2024 and 2025, with a 9.7% increase in average selling price in 2024 and a 12.8% increase in 2025. So, while it is true that the price has increased consistently over the past three years, demand has only slipped slightly. The link between the rising price and only slightly falling volume seems less than convincing.
By this point, the picture resembled a detective story: something wasn’t adding up. Because I’m a big believer that aggregate totals can mask a lot of important details, I decided to take a look at what was happening at the retailer level. What I found was pure chaos. Changes in volume were all over the board at the thirty retailers for whom I had data.
For the year 2025, we have about half of the retailers seeing volume increases, five in double digits. For the same time period, we have half of the retailers seeing price decreases, with eight retailers down by double digits. The ‘Total US’ number showing a 1% decrease in volume concealed this astonishing variation in volume change. What gives? If retailers operating across the country have such different performance in volume, there has to be an explanation.
I took a detour to see if there was any change in regional volumes. Nope. Looking at the regions of the country, it became clear at once that each region’s share of the national whole of avocado volume held rock steady. Whatever was happening at the retailer level was truly local.
“It’s got to be price, right?” Here’s a kick in the head for you — I checked for the effect of price changes and for price relative to the market average and found no correlation. Differences in absolute and relative prices cannot explain the variation in volume change across retailers. I scratched my head. If this were film noir, the detective would reach for a drink; the data instead called for further digging.
All right. What about supply? Let’s just say that retailers are selling everything that’s available and that retailers who are down in volume were unable to get the supply they needed to meet demand. Maybe that’s it.
I decided it was time to look at supply. I took a look at USDA reports for domestic availability — that’s the amount of avocados that are available for consumption in the United States. The numbers are a little sketchy. In 2022, there were 2.8 billion pounds of avocados available for domestic consumption. In 2023, that number increased to about 3 billion pounds. By 2025, the number looks to be somewhere around 3.4 billion pounds. Something about this wasn’t adding up.
If supply is increasing, and demand is slipping, shouldn’t prices be coming down? And if we’re really selling all of the inventory, why wouldn’t retailers take prices even higher? In 30 retailers I looked at (the usual suspects), only one had dropped its price and got more volume.
Supply was increasing, volume was slipping, and prices were creeping. Where were the avocados going? I decided I’d check in with an old pal who worked on the foodservice side of the street. The answer lies in foodservice, where restaurants have been claiming a larger share of supply.
Turns out, restaurants have increased menu incidence, which is the percentage of menus that feature avocado as a menu item. In 2021, something like 4% of menus featured avocado. This year, that number looks to be something like 9.5% So, domestic supply is increasing, but an increasing portion of that supply is going to foodservice. That explains why supply is still an issue for retail.
And that’s not all. Social media activity around avocados has surged. In 2021, there were about 1 million mentions on combined major social media channels (X/Twitter, Facebook, Instagram, TikTok), with that number expected to top out over 3.4 million mentions in 2025 (a 13% increase over 2024).
But what’s driving the difference in volume at the retailer level?
Supply is like water — it finds its own level. Larger retailers with greater purchasing power tend to secure a larger share of available supply, often at the expense of smaller competitors. That means a number of smaller retailers are squeezed out. That explains part of it.
But, if you look at what the winners in avocados are doing, it has a lot to do with awareness and driving the presence of avocados. Walmart has had a partnership with “Avocados from Mexico,” with Publix also having a very high-profile program. Kroger has attacked the problem of waste by using a shelf-life extender that has benefits for both the supply chain and the consumer. Price plays a role, but leading retailers have prioritized avocados with dedicated marketing budgets, cross-channel campaigns, and messaging that highlights health benefits and recipes.
And some retailers are using another strategy — trying to keep their inventories low and their turns high so they can be confident of selling through their inventory when it is at the peak of freshness.
Retailers have a real opportunity with avocados to use a unique situation to make a strategic play on a hot item. If you’re a high-quality-focused retailer, you can use that focus to get a good price on a smaller volume that enhances your brand image and shopper loyalty. If you are a retailer that focuses on value and volume, there’s a play to be made there as well. The one retailer that took prices down below market average saw a 45% increase in volume. Regardless of retail strategy, there is an opportunity to position avocados strategically.
Detectives in film noir may not use crystal balls, but foresight is needed to anticipate what comes next for avocados. I think it’s likely that social media attention will begin to plateau, as will the rapid growth in menu incidence. Avocados have been hot, and it seems they’ll stay strong at retail and foodservice, but maybe the steepest part of the growth curve is coming to an end. With supply increasing and countries like Chile and Peru increasing their imports to the United States, we should all see supply and demand coming into balance, and that is likely to have a stabilizing effect on price.
For now, the mystery appears resolved.
