The start of Donald Trump’s second term has been the biggest news of 2025. Trump has implemented tariffs on imported products to strengthen the local economy. This includes widespread tariffs on Canada and Mexico, which, at the time of writing this article, have prompted reactions from these trade partners, including the imposition of retaliatory tariffs.
These measures could also impact Latin America and the fruit sector, as the U.S. increasingly depends on this region for its agricultural imports. In recent years, the U.S. has become a net food importer, meaning it has a growing trade deficit in agricultural products (Figure 1).
The shift in the U.S. agricultural trade balance has been significant over the past decade, with increased imports from Mexico, Canada, and other countries. In 2018, when the trade war began during Trump’s first term, U.S. agricultural exports to China fell to their lowest level since 2008, while imports reached a record high, reducing the U.S. agricultural trade surplus to its lowest point in 17 years.
Despite trade surpluses in some sectors, the deficits in fresh produce, sugar, and tobacco — combined with declining exports of grains and cereals — have contributed to the growing U.S. agricultural trade deficit over the past three years (Figure 2).
Undoubtedly, the fresh produce sector is the largest contributor to the U.S. agricultural trade deficit. Moreover, it holds significant importance for Latin American countries, as they account for a substantial share of U.S. fruit and vegetable imports.
Growing Dependence on Imports
The U.S. trade in fruits, vegetables, and tree nuts heavily relies on its neighboring countries, as well as China and Latin America. In 2024, 44% of fruit imports, 71% of vegetable imports, and 24% of tree nut imports came from Mexico and Canada. Additionally, 40% of the total import value of fruits and vegetables came from other Latin American countries (excluding Mexico). In contrast, U.S. exports of fresh produce were mainly directed toward North American neighbors, with 57% of fruit exports, 58% of vegetable exports, and 11% of tree nut exports going to Canada and Mexico.
Several factors have influenced the fresh produce trade dynamic, including the complementary growing seasons between the U.S. and Latin American production regions, as well as rising U.S. consumer demand for fresh fruits and vegetables year-round.
When it comes to U.S. exports of fresh produce, Latin American countries (excluding Mexico) are not major destinations, accounting for only 6% of U.S. fruit exports, 8% of vegetable exports, and 2% of tree nut exports in 2024. Therefore, in a possible tariff scenario, it is crucial to highlight Latin America’s importance as a key supplier to the U.S. market. In 2024, eight of the top 10 and 10 of the top 15 fruit suppliers to the U.S. were from Latin America.
Ultimately, it is evident that Latin America plays a crucial role in U.S. fruit imports. In 2024, Latin American countries accounted for 80% of the total U.S. fruit import value, which amounted to $23.39 billion, with Mexico contributing half of that amount. As geopolitical and economic pressures continue to evolve, the resilience of the U.S. and Latin American produce trade will likely be tested, but its importance remains undeniable.
