The produce industry excels at growing supply and ensuring fresh fruits and vegetables reach markets. Historically, when supply is abundant, sales follow; when supply falters, sluggish sales are often blamed on the harvest. But in today’s landscape, simply riding the wave of supply is no longer sustainable. To achieve meaningful, long-term growth, the industry must evolve to meet consumers where they are and focus on creating demand.
In most consumer industries—whether it’s footwear, beverages, or snacks—companies manufacture to meet demand, guided by consumer preferences. The produce industry, however, has long prioritized supply with the mindset, “If we grow it, consumers will buy it.” That model doesn’t align with today’s consumer realities.
Modern consumers are more complex than ever, making purchasing decisions based on price, convenience, habits, and their definition of value. Understanding consumer needs, anticipating trends, and driving demand is crucial to avoid growing products shoppers don’t want—or worse, missing opportunities to develop products they crave and need.
Consumers crave produce more than ever. Despite inflationary pressures, fresh produce remains a bright spot in retail. Circana point-of-sale data shows total fresh food unit sales grew 1% year-over-year in 2024—a rare achievement unmatched by other food or beverage categories. Within that, fresh common fruit—staples like apples, bananas, melons, and grapes—was the second-highest growth category across industries. In a recent Circana survey, “healthy” ranked as the top characteristic consumers sought in food service, underscoring demand for fresh options.
The challenge now is sustaining and expanding that demand. Circana’s Future of Produce retail forecast predicts that 39% of produce categories will not grow in 2025, and without intentional, consumer-focused strategies to address shopper behaviors and unmet needs, fresh produce risks losing momentum.
Shifting from Supply-Focused to Demand-Driven
Inflation has tested even the most loyal shoppers, but trade-offs are not always linear. For example, an apple grower might send a bumper crop to a retailer at a lower cost, but that doesn’t guarantee sales success. Shoppers are inundated with options, from a wide array of apple varieties to competing produce items and even products in entirely different departments that more directly market themselves as easy, affordable, healthy snacking options. Moreover, fresh produce is sold across numerous channels. Traditional grocery stores lost 4% omnimarket share in 2024, with the pounds of produce sold at mass and club stores surpassing the amount lost at traditional grocery stores in many categories.
This complexity highlights the need for a data-driven approach to demand generation. Today, produce suppliers can access robust consumer insights similar to those CPG analysts use to understand what sells and why. Metrics like dollars per buyer, trips per buyer, and frequency reveal shopper behavior, while consumption data connects the dots to drive demand.
The grape and potato categories in 2024 showcased the impact of intentional demand creation. Traditionally seen as a commoditized category, grapes experienced notable sales growth, particularly among younger households, fueled by viral social media recipes. Similarly, potatoes saw a resurgence as consumers rediscovered their versatility through simple and creative online recipes—without requiring significant changes to the crop itself. Maintaining consistent low prices and cycling promotions across various potato varieties strengthened consumer loyalty and boosted retailer market share.
These examples underscore two key points:
Consumers Can Drive Demand…: Social media has empowered shoppers to create trends, breathing new life into familiar products.
…But We Can’t Just Wait for It: Relying on consumers alone to generate demand is not a strategy. The industry must proactively identify opportunities, leverage data, and craft targeted messaging that resonates with today’s shoppers.
While fruit consumption has increased by eight annual eatings per capita, vegetables have decreased by 27 since 2021, according to Circana’s consumption data. This decline is tied to changing meal habits, with vegetables often associated with time-intensive dinners, comprising just 16% of meals.
To reverse this trend, the industry must innovate. Convenient packaging and quick-cooking recipes can make vegetables easier to incorporate into fast-paced routines. Promoting versatile uses, such as including vegetables in breakfasts or snacks, can further expand their appeal beyond traditional meals. These strategies can help make vegetables a daily staple rather than an occasional choice.
The produce industry sits at an impasse. Fresh fruits and vegetables are essential to consumers and retail alike, yet Circana forecasts U.S. produce sales growth to slow to 1% in 2025, with pound volume remaining flat. Simply reducing prices won’t drive demand. The real competition lies in capturing a share of the consumer’s diet, which requires a consumer-first approach.
It’s time to move beyond merely selling what we grow. By understanding consumer needs, anticipating preferences, and generating demand, the produce industry can secure its place not just on store shelves but in the hearts and diets of consumers, driving sustainable growth for years to come.
- Jonna Parker is the fresh foods team lead at Chicago-based market intelligence firm Circana (formerly IRI), where she also leads the Fresh Center of Excellence.
