Volatility and uncertainty aren’t exceptions in the fresh produce industry — they’re the norm. Every day brings new challenges, especially when your primary variable is Mother Nature. Buckle up — it’s always a bumpy ride. In this business, the risk starts long before a single case is sold. Months in advance, growers must have capital to invest, a good engineer, good infrastructure, good labor source, good water source — and, of course, good weather. Any weakness in these foundations can lead to failure.
Even when a farm successfully produces a marketable crop, the next hurdle looms: supply and demand. And that’s almost as unpredictable as the weather. Rarely is there equilibrium. More often, it’s either an oversupply or a shortage. We’re constantly navigating the imbalance — sometimes both at once. And let’s not forget that what we’re selling is a perishable asset, losing value by the minute.
The fresh produce industry is designed for uncertainty — but we don’t need more of it. Unfortunately, the threat of tariffs and trade duties from Washington, D.C., is injecting even more volatility into the system. The uncertainty alone is enough to discourage planting. Some growers may cut back, and others may opt out entirely, worried that shifting policy could make their investments unviable.
Meanwhile, demand for fresh produce in the U.S. continues to grow. In 1980, when the population stood at approximately 227 million, Americans consumed around 43.5 billion pounds of fresh fruits and vegetables, according to data compiled in the USDA’s Food Situation and Review report that year, published via AgEcon Search. By 2024, with the population reaching an estimated 333 million, consumption had surged to 96.6 billion pounds, as reported by the USDA’s Economic Research Service — a 122% increase over 44 years, averaging 2.8% annual growth, driven not only by a larger population but also by rising per capita demand for fresh produce.
At this rate, we’ll need 27 billion more pounds in the next decade. If trade restrictions slow supply, prices will rise — not just because of the tariffs, but also due to basic scarcity. The result? Some consumers may be priced out of the healthiest food group on the planet.
If we’re serious about building a healthier population, fresh fruits and vegetables must be at the center of that effort. Higher costs and reduced availability will only suppress consumption. To meet future demand and support rising intake, U.S. policy should encourage — not restrict — foreign supply. Domestic production alone can’t meet the need. We don’t have enough land, water, or labor — and many crops can’t even be commercially grown in the U.S.
Let’s take fresh produce off the table in tariff and trade policy debates. Let those of us in the produce supply chain focus on the real, everyday uncertainties of growing and selling perishable crops. We need support — not headwinds — from government. With the right environment, we’ll increase yields, introduce new varieties, and keep prices affordable for consumers.
Let’s keep Making America Healthier Always — one bite at a time.
